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☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 closes above 5,300 for the first time: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders walk the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 14, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures were near flat Wednesday evening after a lighter-than-expected inflation reading propelled the major averages to record highs. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched lower by 18 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures hovered eked out a 0.07% gain. The Dow climbed 0.88%, while the broad-market S&P 500 gained 1.17%, breaking above 5,300 for the first time.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Yung, Yu Ma, Armour Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, BMO Wealth Management, CNBC, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Baidu Locations: New York City

☆ A $0 monthly student-loan payment could hurt some borrowers in the long term. An upcoming policy could change that.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A Philadelphia Federal Reserve paper examined $0 monthly student-loan payments on income-driven payment plans. AdvertisementA $0 monthly student-loan payment might only help some borrowers for so long. With student-loan payments often presenting a significant financial burden for borrowers, income-driven repayment plans were created with the idea that borrowers would face a monthly payment they can afford based on their income. In some cases, IDR plans would give borrowers a $0 monthly payment that would still count toward their forgiveness process. Borrowers will still be able to do so manually, but the automatic option could protect those with $0 monthly payments from falling behind on the payment plan's requirements.

Persons: —, servicers Organizations: Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Service, Education Department, Education

☆ Instagram's crisis highlights the bigger issues the entire ad industry is facing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementBusiness Insider's Katie Notopoulos has a rundown on how a relatively scandal-free summer for Meta has erupted into a full-blown crisis at Instagram. And the fix for Instagram's Reels might not be simple or one Meta's willing to make. Instagram, Tyler Le/InstagramThe WSJ's report illustrates a broader issue the ad industry is grappling with. Ad spend has never fully recovered since the onset of the pandemic, meaning companies have to do more with less. AdvertisementAll of that puts the ad industry in a juxtaposition.

Persons: McDonald's, Meta, influencers, Katie Notopoulos, Instagram, Tyler Le, Lauren Johnson, Lauren, Joe Biden, Chip Somodevilla, Here's, It's, Chelsea Jia Feng, Veronica Thatcher, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: The New York Times, Wall, Meta, UBS, Business, Google, White, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Apollo Management, Bank of America, Chelsea, Microsoft, BI, Broadcom, VMware, Amazon, Intuit, CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Locations: Instagram, Washington ,, Gaza, America, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Catching breath as Nvidia update due
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. The dollar (.DXY) continued to fall, however, with its DXY index down for the fourth day to its lowest since August. Dollar losses were broad based, but China's yuan appeared to lead the way to its strongest level since July 27. In Europe, sterling pushed higher ahead of expected tax cuts at Wednesday's budget speech from UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, OpenAI, hoover, LSEG, Jeremy Hunt, Siena, Christine Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Tech, Nvidia, St, Wall, Treasury, Reserve, Bank of, Monday, Philadelphia Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Lowes, Autodesk, Devices, Jacobs Solutions Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of China, China, St, Europe, Britain, Italy, Chicago, Canada

☆ Morning Bid: Treasury yields dive as oil craters, economy softens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. two-year Treasury yields skidded below 4.80% on Friday for the first time since September 1, with 10-year yields dropping under 4.40% to September lows too. Crude has now lost almost 25% in just six weeks - aided by the U.S. gradually lifting oil sanctions on Venezuela. The Labor Department said import prices fell a whopping 0.8% in October, the most in seven months amid a broad decline in the costs of goods - deepening the annual deflation of import prices to as much as 2.0%. Even though the dollar (.DXY), , is taking a hit from the plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, the drop in sovereign borrowing rates was mirrored across the world in Europe , even Japan . Mirroring the softening demand picture elsewhere, British retail sales volumes fell unexpectedly in October as stretched consumers stayed at home.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, plumb, Morgan, Susan Collins, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Dave Ramsden, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Walmart, Cisco, Alibaba, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Treasury, Hong, Housing, Atlanta, Boston Federal, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Bank of England, United States, APEC, Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Wall, Alibaba ., Venezuela, Europe, Japan, HK, Hong Kong, China, San Francisco

☆ Fed's Harker says Fed should not be considering more rate increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S. August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressures in the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. "We should not at this point be thinking about any increases" in the Fed's rate target, Harker told a bankers' group after a speech in which he had again reiterated his belief the Fed is done raising rates in an environment where inflation pressures are ebbing. Reporting by Michael S. Derby Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Ann Saphir, Harker, Michael S, Chris Reese Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was more than 5 basis points higher at 4.681%. The 2-year Treasury yield was around flat at 5.058%. Treasury yields were higher Monday, with investors assessing the U.S. economic outlook as uncertainty about the path ahead for monetary policy, as well as geopolitical concerns, continued. Further remarks from Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, are expected throughout the week. On the data front, investors will get fresh insights into the housing sector and retail sales figures are due Tuesday.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Philadelphia Federal Locations: Israel, Gaza

☆ Fed's Harker says high interest rates closing off housing for new buyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S. August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said on Monday the current level of interest rates has nearly killed off access to the housing market for those looking to get in for the first time. In the text of a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention, Harker said when it comes to housing, based on his interactions in his district, "the climate could be crystallized in seven words, which one of those contacts said to me recently: 'There are no first-time home buyers.'" Harker explained that high interest rates have hit the housing sector by boosting costs and contracting inventory because many people no longer wish to sell, while pushing more prospective buyers into newly built homes. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Ann Saphir, Harker, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Mortgage, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: MidEast tension keeps markets on edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAlthough price moves remain contained in the absence of a dramatic weekend escalation, world markets are still on edge as Middle East tension builds without obvious resolution. Disputed reports of a temporary ceasefire in southern Gaza partly stabilised jittery macro prices first thing on Monday. Yet the extent to which the backup in oil prices over recent months can impact wider economic sentiment was clear from the University of Michigan's household survey on Friday. That appeared to be the case last week as oil prices, gold, the dollar and Treasuries gained into the close while stocks fell back.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Israel, Treasuries, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Poland's, Patrick Harker, Christine Lagarde, Fabio Panetta, Mike Dolan, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, University of Michigan's, U.S, Treasury, Wall, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Netflix, Federal Reserve, European Union ., York Fed, Bank of Canada, Philadelphia Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Global, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Wells Fargo, Luxembourg, LSEG, CHINA

☆ Philadelphia Fed President Harker advocates holding interest rates 'where they are'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said Friday he thinks the central bank can stop raising interest rates. I believe that we are at the point where we can hold rates where they are," Harker said in prepared remarks for the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce. Reports this week showed that 12-month rates for inflation are coming down but remain above the Fed's 2% annual target. "We remain data dependent but patient and cautious with the data," he added. I didn't coin it, but my expectation is that rates will need to stay high for a while," he said.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, specter Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, Market, Wall Street Locations: Delaware

☆ Dating rumors around Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have gotten so out of hand that even a top White House official was asked about the pair
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Rebecca Cohen | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

At a White House briefing, reporters asked John Kirby if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are dating. A spokesperson for the White House did not comment on the relationship when asked by Insider. AdvertisementAdvertisementNo one is safe from questions about Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. And the Taylor Swift economic bump likely isn't going anywhere. It's no wonder, then, that the White House is being questioned on who Taylor Swift is, anyway: She's a major economic powerhouse for the country.

Persons: John Kirby, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Kirby, —, Karine Jean, Pierre, Swift, Jean, Pierre wasn't, Joe Biden, it's, Cork Gaines, QuestionPro, Swifties, Jake, who's, Taylor Organizations: White, Service, Kansas City Chiefs, White House Press, National Security Council, The White, NFL, Chiefs, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Locations: Hollywood

☆ It's Taylor Swift's economy. We're all just living in it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Swift's blockbuster Eras Tour injected billions into the US economy, and so will her movie. A quick recap: The demand for Swift's Eras Tour was so momentous that it literally broke Ticketmaster's website, prompting a Congressional hearing into its dominance of the ticketing industry. Swifties previously told Insider that they were spending upwards of $20,000 to attend the Eras Tour this past summer. Glendale, Arizona — the first stop on the Eras Tour — went as far as renaming itself " Swift City " when the artist came to town. Swift's impact on local economies even led to a shoutout from the Federal Reserve, who said the Eras Tour helped boost hotel revenue in Philadelphia when she came through town.

Persons: Taylor Swift, Swift, —, haven't, Richard Blumenthal, Joe Berchtold, QuestionPro, Swifties, Travis Kelce, Chiefs windbreaker Swift, Kelce, doesn't, Aaron Rodgers Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, NFL, Democrats, Live, CNN, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Hollywood, Football, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Kansas City, Front Office, Fox, Kansas City Chiefs Pro Shop, The New York Post, New York Jets, MetLife, NBC Locations: Connecticut, Glendale , Arizona, Philadelphia, American, New Jersey, New York

☆ The real reason you're using 'Girl Math' isn't as funny as the TikTok trend would make you think
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Kai Xiang Teo | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Girl Math" is the humorous TikTok trend where users justify expenses with tricks. "Girl Math" may just be "Buy Now, Pay Later" in disguise, the experts said. "To me, the popularity of the "Girl Math" trend indicates a lot of pent-up guilt around our purchases," said Barrow. That's why it's important to disclose when "Girl Math" is humor instead of fact, said Sara Samuels, a wealth management advisor at Northwestern Mutual. AdvertisementAdvertisementFinancial educator Ellis even suggests setting aside money for savings or an emergency fund every time you make a "Girl Math" purchase.

Persons: Sam James, —, Ashley Morris, Isabel Barrow, Barrow, Erin Ellis, Ellis, Edelman's Barrow, Sara Samuels, Morris Organizations: Service, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Philadelphia Federal Credit Union, Northwestern Mutual Locations: Wall, Silicon, Philadelphia, Barrow

☆ Fed's Harker expects no more rate hikes needed this year, in CNBC interview
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Harker spoke to the television channel on the sidelines of the Kansas City Fed’s annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But for Harker, it's very much a question of the economy working through the ongoing impact of the Fed's prior actions. We need to absorb that,'" the bank president said of his local contacts. He expects the unemployment rate to rise a touch to 4% or maybe higher and he believes growth should moderate. Harker also said it's too soon to say when the Fed might cut interest rates.

Persons: Patrick Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Ann Saphir, CNBC he's, Harker, let's, Jerome Powell, it's, you've, I'd, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Kansas, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CNBC, Kansas City, Fed, Market, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Kansas

☆ 10-year Treasury yield rises as investors digest Fed meeting minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3 basis points higher at 4.288%, its highest level since October 2022. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed Thursday as investors digested minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting and considered the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Investors weighed what could be next for inflation and Federal Reserve monetary policy as they digested the minutes from the central bank's last meeting in July, which were released on Wednesday. In July's meeting minutes, Fed officials noted that inflation was still too high, but there were signs that pressures from higher prices are easing. Fresh inflation data has been released since the central bank's July meeting and painted a mixed picture.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Federal Locations: Philadelphia

☆ Wall Street says buy the dip on India's Nifty 50 — and Morgan Stanley names its favorite stock
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America has revealed its year-end price target for India's Nifty index, forecasting that it will reach 20,500 points by December 2023. The Nifty 50 benchmark index is composed of the market capitalization-weighted average of 50 of the largest Indian companies. The Wall Street bank's price target points towards a 4.5% upside from its current level of 19,625. Bank of America (BofA) said the change in outlook from its U.S. economics team was a key driver behind this prediction. The Wall Street bank said the Indian lender's asset quality remains robust and margins have experienced only minor declines despite higher funding costs.

Persons: Shah, Udit, Nifty's, Patrick Harker, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, Sumeet Kariwala, Michael Bloom Organizations: of America, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Federal, ICICI Bank, New York Stock Exchange Locations: United States, U.S, China

☆ Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggests interest rate hikes are at an end
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Tuesday indicated that the central bank could be at the end of its current rate-hiking cycle. New York Fed President John Williams also indicated, in an interview with the New York Times published Monday, that the rate increases could be over. Markets are pricing in more than an 85% probability that the Fed holds steady at its Sept. 19-20 meeting, according to CME Group data. Harker indicated there are unlikely to be rate cuts anytime soon. The Fed was forced into tightening mode after inflation hit its highest level in more than 40 years.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Dow Jones Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, Market Committee, New York Fed, New York Times, Fed, Group, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Philadelphia

☆ Morning Bid: Tesla, Netflix underwhelm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A Tesla logo is seen outside a showroom of the carmaker in Beijing, China May 31, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File PhotoA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanAn overdue cold shower? July 20 (Reuters) - The first of the supercharged Big Tech firms to report in this earnings season - Tesla and Netflix - seemed to underwhelm markets overnight, cutting across the enthusiastic reception for big banks and knocking back bulled-up Wall St from 2023 highs. Although electric car giant Tesla (TSLA.O) comfortably beat second quarter profit forecasts, markets seized on plans for continued price discounting and squeezed margins as a reason to drag its shares down almost 4% in overnight trading. In the fixed income world, Treasury yields crept back higher ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Mike Dolan, Dow Jones, McLennan, Philip Morris, WR, DR Horton, Janet Yellen, John Organizations: REUTERS, Big Tech, Netflix, Overseas, Citizens, US Bancorp, Energy, Healthcare, Abbott Laboratories, Johnson, Blackstone, Truist Financial, American Airlines, Marsh, WR Berkley, CSX, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Housing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Russia, Britain, Newmont, Freeport, McMoRan, DR, Philadelphia, Turkey, South Africa, Vietnam

☆ Stocks surge in Asia as US averts default, Fed pause bets rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The exuberant mood looked set to continue in Europe, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.45%, German DAX futures up 0.49% and FTSE futures 0.18% higher. The Treasury Department had warned it would be unable to pay all its bills on June 5 if Congress failed to act. "The market's focus is shifting to the economic front and Fed's decision on rates now," said Tina Teng, markets analysts at CMC Markets. AMP's Oliver said the prevailing sentiment now is that there will be a pause in June and that's helped markets. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.42%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was 1% higher, continuing its hot run.

Persons: DAX, Shane Oliver, Tina Teng, Patrick Harker, Harker, AMP's Oliver, that's, there'll, Australia's, Sterling, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Senate, Representatives, Treasury Department, AMP, CMC Markets, Labor, Philadelphia Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Europe, Sydney, U.S, China, Shanghai

☆ Morning Bid: Markets feel Friday cheer as signs point to Fed pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Treasury Department had warned it would be unable to pay all its bills on June 5 if Congress failed to act. Markets though seemed to have moved on to focus on what the Fed will do in two weeks as U.S. economic data bolstered the case for the Fed to stand pat. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), which has been languishing near two-month lows, should get a lift. In the corporate world, Goldman Sachs plans to cut more jobs, the bank's president said, as a difficult economic environment weighs on dealmaking. In January, it let go about 3,200 employees, its biggest head count reduction since the 2008 financial crisis.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, Joe Biden, Patrick Harker, Labor Department's, Goldman Sachs, Ella Irwin, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Ankur, Reserve, U.S, Senate, Treasury Department, Fed, Philadelphia Federal, Nikkei, Labor, Twitter, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Asia, Europe, U.S, Japan, Singapore

☆ Asian shares rise on debt bill progress, Fed pause hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, June 2 (Reuters) - Asian stocks surged on Friday as the progress on the bill to raise U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve might stand still on interest rates in its next meeting helped perk up investor appetite for risky assets. Harry Ottley, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the signs of slowing wage pressure has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will pause raising interest rates in two weeks. Comments from Fed officials also helped embolden Fed pause hopes, with Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker saying U.S. central bankers should not raise interest rates at their next meeting. In early Asian hours, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 0.6 basis points at 4.347%, having slipped around 5 basis points on Thursday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 0.2 basis points to 3.610%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 0.6 basis points to 3.829%.

Persons: Chuck Schumer, Harry Ottley, CBA's Ottley, embolden, Patrick Harker, Harker, Sterling, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Senate, Democratic, Treasury, Japan's Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal, Traders, U.S . House, Labor, Philadelphia Federal, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Washington, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Shanghai, U.S

Fed officials pointed toward a rate hike "skip" at its June 13-14 meeting, giving time for the central bank to assess the impact of its tightening cycle thus far against still-strong inflation data. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month in May as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates, but factories boosted employment to a nine-month high. "We have made clear that we still have ground to cover to bring interest rates to sufficiently restrictive levels," Lagarde said in a speech. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike when the ECB meets on June 15. "There's a sort of narrowing interest rate differential ... when the ECB is expected to hike one or two more times and the Fed is more questionable about that."

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Edward Moya, Patrick Harker, payrolls, Lagarde, John Velis, Hannah Lang, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Andrew Heavens, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, OANDA, Philadelphia Federal, ADP, Institute for Supply Management, ECB, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: OANDA . U.S, Washington, London, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Hot, cold and skipping a beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Like a patient with a virus, incoming data appears to blow hot and cold at the same time. Private sector and full national snapshots of payroll growth for May are due later today and on Friday. But a renewed rise in U.S. staff vacancies in April showed the labor market tightening again if anything - even a Chicago manufacturing survey alarmed with a sharp contraction in factory activity last month. The central bank's "Beige Book" on economic conditions said on Wednesday that the labor market "continued to be strong" in May "with contacts reporting difficulty finding workers across a wide range of skill levels and industries." U.S. Treasury yields crept back up on Thursday after the debt ceiling vote overnight and despite the mixed economic picture.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Philip Jefferson, Larry Fink, Klaas Knot, Patrick Harker, President Biden, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, BlackRock, Treasury, U.S, San, Central Bank, Philadelphia Federal, Broadcom, Dollar, Hormel, Cooper Companies, Republicans, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Chicago, Salesforce, San Francisco

Harker said he sees promising signs the Fed's rate hikes so far -- five full percentage points since March 2022 -- are having a cooling effect, particularly on housing prices. Uncertainty over inflation dynamics and the pace of credit tightening make him wary of continuing to raise rates. Harker said he expects the economy to grow less than 1% this year, and for the unemployment rate, now at 3.4%, to rise to around 4.4%. He said he could envision the Fed cutting rates if unemployment rises significantly faster, or inflation falls more rapidly, than he currently forecasts. "We don't have to keep moving rates up, and then have to reverse course quickly."

Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, Corp's, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson

☆ US dollar advances to seven-week peak after data, debt ceiling hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Another piece of data indicated a milder-than-expected fall in a business index to -10.4 from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The dollar index touched a new seven-week high of 103.38, and was last up 0.5% at 103.34 after the economic numbers. Against the yen, the dollar rose to a fresh five-month peak of 138.39 after the data and was last up 0.5% at 138.35 . Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. The focus was also on debt ceiling talks.

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